–Chief Equity Strategist Says Markets Will Struggle despite Easing of Macro Risks
“Over the latter part of 2019, there was an abundance of good news reported. It’s our position that many of the positives are already reflected in current stock prices.” said Bob Doll, CFA, senior portfolio manager and chief equity strategist at Nuveen.
Bob Doll’s Ten Predictions for 2020
- The world avoids recession in 2020 as U.S. GDP grows over 2% and global GDP grows over 3%.
- Inflation and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield end the year above 2% as the Fed stays on hold through the election.
- Earnings fall short of expectations, partially due to rising wage rates.
- Stocks, bonds and cash all return less than 5% for only the fourth time in 25 years.
- Non-U.S. stocks outpace U.S. stocks as the dollar retreats.
- Value and cyclicals outperform growth and defensive stocks.
- Financials, technology and health care outperform utilities, real estate and consumer discretionary.
- Active equity managers outperform their indexes for the first time in a decade.
- The cold wars within the U.S. and between the U.S. and China continue.
- The U.S. concludes a tumultuous political year with a status quo election.
The full version of Bob Doll’s Ten Predictions for 2020 paper is available at https://www.nuveen.com/ten-predictions.
For additional information about Nuveen’s 2020 outlook across a broad range of asset classes, please visit https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/thinking/investment-outlook/2020-outlook.